+38.42% ROI
across 6 MLB seasons.
13,407 moneyline picks. Every single one graded against the actual closing line you would have bet, paid out at real sportsbook odds.
No cherry-picking. No hindsight. Closing-line odds pulled from The Odds API across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, and BetOnline. Stake sizing matches what the model assigned at generation time.
Performance by Tier
Data-derived · Edge-basedEvery passed pick is graded A, B, or C based on the model's edge vs the closing line. All three tiers are profitable across the full window.
Tier A
Premium · 3u playsTier S
Short Fav · 2u playsTier B
Standard · 1u playsTier C
Value · 0.5u playsBankroll Curve by Tier
Profitable Every Season
See the Data Yourself
Every individual bet with date, matchup, side, book, odds, edge%, grade, stake, win/loss, and payout — in one downloadable file. Audit anything.
Methodology
Window. 2020-07-18 through 2025-11-01 — 13,407 MLB games. Coverage starts at the earliest closing-line data available from The Odds API.
Odds. Closing-line snapshot taken ~5 minutes before first pitch for each game, across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, BetOnline. Each pick is graded at the best available price across those books at that snapshot — the line a customer with multiple accounts would actually have gotten.
Strategy. Model probabilities generated by the production orchestrator with no hindsight: only data available as of the day before each game is used. Picks pass the same edge filter the live system uses today.
Stake sizing. Confidence-weighted units (0.5u to 2.0u) as assigned by the live scoring system. Total units staked: 18,205.5u.